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What are reasonable limitations for probability-manipulating magic? Question
I'm imagining a sort of magic that only manipulates probabilities. That is, you cannot achieve something that's against the laws of nature (for example, you cannot create energy out of nothing), but you can make unlikely events more likely and likely events more unlikely (as a simple example, you can cause dice to fall on six far more often than they should). The strength of a wizard is then given by how much he can bend probability; with sufficient strength a wizard can do "thermodynamically impossible" tasks like heating up stuff without a heat source.
Now I imagine that those with the ability can do it just with the power of their mind (maybe some quantum consciousness thing). This however raises two questions:
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If you can do it with your mind, then why can't everyone do it, and why are there wizards with inherently different strengths?
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Any magic should come with a cost (or else it would be overpowered). What would be a reasonable cost for this type of ability?
It would be nice to find "natural" answers to those questions (that is, answers that don't seem arbitrary, but intrinsically linked to this type of magic).
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What came to mind immediately on reading the question, limitation-wise, was that you actually need to understand the current probabilities and what contributing factors you want (notionally) changed. Changing the fairness of a die, then, is (maybe) pretty easy, since you could nudge the bouncing cube away from seven minus the target number more often than an even chance. You only have one piece and a lot of opportunities to shift things. But (ignoring setting ideas) encouraging a car to stall, you need to know the relevant mechanisms, their failure modes, and the existing odds that they'll happen. That could take days to work out, when you only have a few minutes.
Not everybody does it, because not everybody has the patience to prepare that kind of work.
And the cost also seems potentially straightforward, despite the question trying to avoid it at the end: Arbitrariness.
That order imposed on events needs to "come from" somewhere, making other events more difficult to predict as their probabilities skew. Sure, your pursuer got a stone in his shoe, but do you really want to risk climbing that fence with your heart condition after lucking out like that...? Those upcoming actions used to be random, but now they very much are arbitrary, and nobody can guess how, because nobody knows the state of every system just prior to borrowing that randomness.
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If you can do it with your mind, then why can't everyone do it, and why are there wizards with inherently different strengths?
It is like many other abilities we are already familiar with. Some people are physically stronger than others, or faster, or have better hearing, or are smarter.
Then there is training. While some people were born with potential to be exceptionally strong, they still have to do lots of workouts and training to realize that potential. Not everyone can be an olympic gold medalist sprinter no matter how hard they train, but all gold medalist sprinters had to train hard to get there.
Your exceptional wizards not only have to be born with the right genes, but have to be taught to harness the power, and have to do lots of practice to use it effectively. If you want to be really good, you have to dedicate your life to it.
Any magic should come with a cost (or else it would be overpowered). What would be a reasonable cost for this type of ability?
There are lots of ways this could go.
It could be physically draining, like sprinting up a hill. The more improbable, the more draining it is. Using the power diminishes the ability to use the power until you've rested. Using it too much without sufficient resting could have long term detrimental effects.
It could also require stealing resources from other biological functions. For example, it may rapidly deplete the blood oxygen level. If you use the power too much without taking time to recover, you pass out. Do that too often, and you suffer long term brain damage. Again, the more improbable the more oxygen is taken from the blood.
Similarly, it could require a particular scarce nutrient in the environment. Imagine if you had to eat a gram of saffron to pull off a meaningful trick. Or, it could take a bit of stuff called "spice" that turns out to be worm poop from a distant planet that is heavily guarded and expensive to get to (Nah, that's silly, forget that one).
Another possibility is that there is a long term cost for each usage of the power. Your body is damaged a little be with every use. Some people are more susceptible than others. Think of it like having to smoke one cigarette for little feats, and multiple packs for large feats. Some people do it and get away with it and live long lives. Others die from an incurable disease much more quickly. You don't know about any one individual, but on average, there is a clear downside.
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